Predicting London and Ryan Hall's success

You may all remember prior to the US Olympic Trials I predicted that Dathan Ritzenhein and Brian Sell would make the Olympic team, right?  That was pretty impressive, I thought.  And yes, I had Ryan Hall finishing fifth and Meb Keflezighi qualifying in his place, but that was obviously a case of emotion over reason as Meb is my friend and former teammate.  The lesson there: Don't take me to Vegas.

Well, in my first attempt since then at predicting the unpredictable, I came pretty darn close to nailing it again.  Last Friday I wrote:

"Ryan Hall will take second place in the marathon on Sunday. Martin Lel will be the winner, and run under 2:06.  Ryan will run 2:06:13, and outkick Wanjiru in the last mile."

That's right.  If you change second to fifth, 13 to 17 and Ryan to Martin, I nailed it!  That's because Ryan Hall just finished an amazing fifth in the London Marathon this morning, running the 22nd fastest time ever in the marathon (2:06:17!).  The winner was indeed Martin Lel, and Wanjiru was indeed outkicked at the end, only it was for second not third and not by Ryan Hall (race recap here).

Here are the top 6 for the race, all of whom ran personal bests:

1. Martin Lel, Kenya, 2:05:15
2. Samuel Wanjiru, Kenya, 2:05:24
3. Abderrahim Goumri, Morocco, 2:05:30
4. Emmanuel Mutai, Kenya, 2:06:15
5. Ryan Hall, USA, 2:06:17
6. Deriba Merga, Ethiopia, 2:06:38

So how about some accolades?  After this performance, Ryan Hall is now:

• The runner of the 22nd-fastest marathon ever
• The 16th fastest marathoner all-time
• The third-fastest non-African marathoner ever (behind Brazil's Roberto da Costa and Japan's Toshinari Takaoka)
• The second-fastest American marathoner ever (behind Khalid Khannouchi's 2:05:38)
• The fastest American-born marathoner ever
• Absolutely, without-a-doubt the best marathoner in the country right now...hands down.

Fore reference, here are the fastest 16 marathoners of all-time, with their personal bests and top-22 performances:

1. Haile Gebrselassie, Ethiopia, 2:04:26 (also 2:04:53, 2:05:56)
2. Paul Tergat, Kenya, 2:04:55 (also 2:05:48)
3. Sammy Korir, Kenya, 2:04:56
4. Martin Lel, Kenya, 2:05:15
5. Samuel Wanjiru, Kenya, 2:05:24
6. Abderrahim Goumri, Morocco, 2:05:30
7. Khalid Khannouchi, USA, 2:05:38 (also 2:05:42, 2:05:56)
8. Evans Rutto, Kenya, 2:05:50 (also 2:06:16)
9. Ronaldo da Costa, Brazil, 2:06:05
10. Felix Limo, Kenya, 2:06:14
11. Titus Munji, Kenya, 2:06:15
12. Emmanuel Mutai, Kenya, 2:06:15
13. Moses Tanui, Kenya, 2:06:16
14. Daniel Njenga, Kenya, 2:06:16
15. Toshinari Takaoka, Japan, 2:06:16
16. Ryan Hall, USA, 2:06:17

Looking ahead to Beijing, Ryan is in very good position to medal.  He showed he can go out at world record pace, make mistakes and recover (read here for more info) and many of the runners above are either past their prime or won't be competing in Beijing (Gebrselassie and all but three of the Kenyans, at most).  Martin Lel and Samuel Wanjiru look very formidable, however.  If Ryan hopes to bring home a medal, let alone a gold, he's still got some distance he'll need to make up.

I am sure there will be numerous interviews, videos, and podcasts with Ryan after this performance.  I'll update this post with them at the bottom as I find them, be sure to check back for more.

Interview with Ryan at Flotrack

Comments

[Blaine Moore]

Nice work with the predictions! Amazingly close to how well it played out, especially with the times.

[bryan]

Yeah, but you should see the predictions made over at The Science of Sport! Uncanny. It's almost as if he watched the race!